Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
