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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd